Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 95922.894787 101125.589061 106324.821245 111906.987051 117727.120088 123612.912859 130011.456631
2025-11-09 86968.510645 94887.039380 103018.432420 111982.034787 121575.089249 131523.252800 142608.830839
2025-11-16 81433.192807 91268.385423 101584.121462 113189.174798 125859.169741 139249.964631 154450.462495
2025-11-23 76349.714310 87542.731260 99494.250002 113170.201010 128350.119359 144646.348324 163426.831256
2025-11-30 73217.508983 85617.935490 99063.556644 114674.194377 132246.182243 151360.311897 173668.876936
2025-12-07 70270.240148 83650.837670 98362.146858 115666.669535 135390.922782 157098.587672 182719.197557
2025-12-14 67100.795688 81225.221420 96957.173652 115688.052308 137286.725219 161314.253434 189964.736898
2025-12-21 64461.120311 79253.922867 95929.881433 116008.204908 139408.066811 165696.385678 197336.050497
2025-12-28 62875.621626 78410.377897 96115.646865 117650.482747 142989.482287 171708.495319 206562.791881
2026-01-04 61193.166628 77358.115236 95975.565885 118839.386937 145987.565783 177014.311986 214965.510294
2026-01-11 59416.231657 76106.579781 95524.197739 119592.572599 148420.256524 181628.758714 222551.871218
2026-01-18 57491.357919 74593.885755 94687.809240 119819.407629 150174.361301 185410.418376 229143.363072
2026-01-25 55785.225963 73303.576776 94086.249075 120309.219392 152242.980307 189588.183193 236260.958392
2026-02-01 53953.562344 71793.686043 93161.753296 120358.407073 153745.436121 193075.092421 242561.132776
2026-02-08 52854.280815 71152.839500 93264.382708 121632.593668 156715.242155 198317.369195 250985.383023
2026-02-15 51189.650908 69738.645136 92356.414307 121611.131965 158062.051351 201578.354474 257013.020503
2026-02-22 50396.653791 69401.730324 92765.228395 123206.075308 161389.954939 207249.481929 265993.051499
2026-03-01 49398.519600 68762.751106 92761.857906 124258.571419 164029.959079 212079.972760 273965.570627
2026-03-08 47983.513105 67536.412137 91972.266299 124281.235223 165355.464117 215279.588133 279935.360111
2026-03-15 46781.895069 66551.097800 91456.168084 124620.744730 167056.359528 218932.324003 286469.816704
2026-03-22 46254.766211 66435.903117 92043.721717 126362.175544 170528.679897 224797.569674 295781.144493
2026-03-29 45548.928673 66057.314725 92269.395683 127622.701027 173384.422828 229900.911166 304168.507651
2026-04-05 44682.083130 65434.845493 92153.240707 128421.191280 175638.942527 234251.449599 311630.802308